Readings and Further Readings (Winter 2013)
as you prepare for your term paper…
Almost everything should be on Sakai…and in Leyburn.
One challenge in studying China is that with 10% growth things double in 7 years; in the background that implies lots of qualitative change. The following list includes articles, primarily by economists, that bridge the gap between economics-oriented collations such as the Brand & Rawski volume, the chapters of which provide both an overview of analytic frameworks and a sense of which models are useful, as well as a survey of prior work and their judgment of the extent of our knowledge, er, ignorance. I provide a short annotation for supplements; you’re expected to tackle the required readings so I don’t add comments for those..
However, tapping this literature requires learning how to read articles aimed at other economists which are therefore replete with technical material – models, statistical methodologies – that are not of immediate interest to those merely wanting to delve a bit deeper. We will work through select technical articles in class to help you gain confidence to “read around” (if not skip altogether) the technical infrastructure and instead be able to extract the key framework, the results, and the authors’ evaluations the robustness of their findings.
Brandt, Loren and Rawski, Thomas G. (eds.) (2008). China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Dunne, Michael (2011). American Wheels, Chinese Roads: The Story of General Motors in China. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Hessler, Peter (2010). Country Driving. New York: HarperCollins.
Li, Huaiyin (2009). Village China Under Socialism and Reform: A Micro-History, 1948-2008. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Other books of interest:
Gao, Mobo C. F. (1999). Gao Village: A Portrait of Rural Life in Modern China. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press.
an anthropologist who looks at changes in his home village
Huang, Shu-min (1998). The Spiral Road: Change in a Chinese Village Through the Eyes of a Communist Party Leader. 2nd ed., Westview Press.
a biography of a retired party secretary in a village outside Xiamen, with much detail on the interpersonal relations that permeate life in a close-knit community; I’ve been to the village and met the now-retired party leader
Gifford, Rob (2008). China Road: A Journey into the Future of a Rising Power. New York: Random House.
an NPR journalist who went from Shanghai to China’s western border by road – a fascinating read from someone steeped in history and sufficiently aware of political, economic and social change to put his adventures in context
Naughton, Barry (2007). The Chinese Economy: Transition and Growth, MIT Press.
a contributor to the Brandt & Rawski volume, but this book is too dated to use as a primary text; the author is a contemporary of mine as a grad student at Yale
Economic & Social History of Qing China and the PRC under Mao:
Lardy, Nicholas R. (1987). “Economic Recovery and the 1st Five-Year Plan.” In: Roderick MacFarquhar and John King Fairbank, eds., The People’s Republic, Part 1: The Emergence of Revolutionary China, 1949-1965. The Cambridge History of China, Volume 14: Cambridge University Press.
— (1987). “The Chinese Economy Under Stress, 1958-1965.” In: Roderick MacFarquhar and John King Fairbank, eds., The People’s Republic, Part 1: The Emergence of Revolutionary China, 1949-1965. The Cambridge History of China, Volume 14: Cambridge University Press.
Perkins, Dwight H. (1991). “China’s Economic Policy and Performance.” In: The People’s Republic, Part 2: Revolutions within the Chinese Revolution 1966–1982: Harvard Institute for International Development, Chapter 6, pp. 475-539.
Rowe, William T. (2009). China’s Last Empire: The Great Qing. Cambridge, MA: Harvard.
This is the best history I have read of the 3 centuries leading up to the modern era. it is furthermore rich in detailing social and economic issues and not just “high politics.”
Leyburn has a collection of feature films including: Together, To Live, Blind Shaft, Happy Times, Shower, The Story of Qiu Ju, Not One Less and many others. Watch several! Note that some have non-US regional encoding so must be watched in the library or (if you have one) on a multi-region DVD player.
Week I: Background
Naughton, Barry (2007). “The Geographical Setting.” In The Chinese Economy: Transition and Growth, MIT Press, Chapter 1, 17-32.
Perkins, Dwight H. (2010). “China’s Prereform Economy in World Perspective.” In China’s Rise in Historical Perspective, ed. Brantly Womack, New York: Rowman & Littlefield, Chapter 5, 109-127.
Rawski, Evelyn S. “Chinese Strategy and Security Issues in Historical Perspective.” In China’s Rise in Historical Perspective, ed. Brantly Womack, 63-87. New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010.
Blum, Susan D. (2000). China’s Many Faces: Ethnic, Cultural, and Religious Pluralism. In: Timothy B. Weston and Lionel M. Jensen, eds., China Beyond the Headlines. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Chapter 3, pp. 69-95.
quick read that emphasizes the sheer variety in the empire inherited from the Qing
Leeming, Frank, 1985, Rural China Today. London & New York: Longman.
very old, but physical geography, minorities, and agricultural zones haven’t changed
Yabuki, Susumu (1999). A Huge Country. In: Susumu Yabuki and Stephen M. Harner, eds., China’s New Political Economy. Boulder, CO.: Westview Press, pp. 9-13.
This is a translation of a Japanese-language book, nice for its 2- or 4-page treatment with graphs and tables of lots of topics. It is very dated, but is a good source of ideas and background. note that any large Japanese bookstore will have multiple shelves in its economics section devoted entirely to China. the largest store has multiple bookcases…and that was already true 6 years ago.
Week II: Micro Incentives
Bai, Chong-En and Qian, Yingyi (2010). Infrastructure development in China: The cases of electricity, highways, and railways. Journal of Comparative Economics, 38, pp. 34-51.
Brown, Philip H., Bulte, Erwin and Zhang, Xiaobo (2010). Positional Spending and Status Seeking in Rural China. CGIAR. May, IFPRI Discussion Paper 00983.
Huang, Jikun, Otsuka, Keijiro and Rozelle, Scott (2008). Agriculture in China’s Development: Past Disappointments, Recent Successes, and Future Challenges. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 13, pp. 467-505.
Luo, Renfu, Zhang, Linxiu, Huang, Jikun and Rozelle, Scott (2007). Elections, fiscal reform and public goods provision in rural China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 35, pp. 583-611.
Roberts, Mark, Deichmann, Uwe, Fingleton, Bernard and Shi, Tuo (2010). “On the Road to Prosperity? The Economic Geography of China’s National Expressway Network.” World Bank. November, Policy Research Working Paper 5479.
Yao, Yusheng (2009). Village Elections and Redistribution of Political Power and Collective Property. The China Quarterly, 197(March), pp. 126-144.
Week III: Industry
Brandt, Loren, Rawski, Thomas G. and Sutton, John (2008). China’s Industrial Development. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 15, pp. 569-632.
Naughton, Barry (2008). A Political Economy of China’s Economic Transition. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 4, pp. 91-135.
Naughton, Barry (2007). The Socialist Era, 1949-1978: Big Push Industrialization and Policy Instability, The Chinese Economy: Transition and Growth: MIT Press, Chapter 3, 55-84.
Gregory, Paul and Stuart, Robert (1990). The Soviet Industrialization Debates (1924-1928), Soviet Economic Structure and Performance: Harper & Row, Chapter 4.
Smitka, Michael (2011). Contracts 2011. Handout on “Miscellaneous Issues in Agriculture.” Class Resource, Economics 274, Washington and Lee University, Winter 2011.
Zimbalist, Andrew, Sherman, Howard J. and Brown, Stuart (1989). USSR: Planning for Balance. In Comparing Economic Systems: A Political-Economic Approach. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Chapter 7, pp. 202-227.
Week IV: Growth Models
Brandt, Loren and Zhu, Xiaodong (2010). Accounting for China’s Growth. University of Toronto. February, Working Paper 394.
Islam, Nazrul and Yokota, Kazuhiko (2009). China’s Industrialization Views from the Lewis Growth Model. In: Nazrul Islam, ed., Resurgent China: Issues for the Future. London: Palgrave McMillan, Chapter 6, pp. 123-148.
Smitka, Michael (2011a). Solow Growth Model. Handout on Sakai, Economics 274, Washington and Lee University, Winter 2011.
––––– (2011b). Solow Growth.xlsx. Sakai Class Resource, Economics 274, Washington and Lee University, Winter 2011.
Week V: Solow model continued
Bosworth, Barry P. and Collins, Susan M. (2007). Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India. Cambridge, MA: NBER. February, Working Paper No. 12943.
Brandt, Loren, Hsieh, Chang-Tai and Zhu, Xiaodong (2008). Growth and Structural Transformation in China. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 17, pp. 683-729.
Cai, Fang and Wang, Meiyan (2010). Growth and structural changes in employment in transition China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 38(1), pp. 71-81.
Ding, Sai and Knight, John (2009). “Can the augmented Solow model explain China’s remarkable economic growth? A cross-country panel data analysis.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 37, pp. 432-452.
nice but you have to be able to follow their log notation. conceptually straightforward, but a lot of technical stuff to “read around”
Song, Zheng, Storesletten, Kjetil and Zilibotti, Fabrizio (2011). Growing Like China. American Economic Review, 101(1), pp. 196-233.
Week VI: Economics of the Family: Labor, Education, Fertility, Migration
– see the “migration” section under Sakai > Resources for many more papers on migration –
Cai, Fang, Park, Albert and Zhao, Yaohui (2008). The Chinese Labor Market in the Reform Era. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 6, pp. 167-214.
Qu, Zhaopeng and Zhao, Zhong (2011). Evolution of the Chinese Rural-Urban Migrant Labor Market from 2002 to 2007. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). January, Discussion Paper No. 5421.
Week VII: Migration, continued
Readings: I have a lot of migration readings on Sakai – around 80 at last count. I’ve chosen recent ones, but you may freely substitute a paper on a similar topic.
Frijters, Paul and Meng, Xin (2009). Rural to Urban Migration in China: An Overall View. Canberra: Australia National University. September, Working Paper.
Wu, Zheren (2008). Relative Income Positions and Labor Migration: A Panel Study Based on a Rural Household Survey in China. Osaka, Japan: Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP). June, Discussion Paper 08-24.
Xing, Chunbing (2010). Migration, Self-Selection, and Income Distributions: Evidence from Rural and Urban China. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor. May, IZA Discussion Paper No. 4979.
Yu, Song, Zheng, Jianmin and Qian, Wenrong (2009). To Be, or Not to Be: Rural Women’s Migration Decisions A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta. Chinese Economy, 42(4), pp. 63-74.
Zhou, Li and Takeuchi, Hiroki (2010). Informal Lenders and Rural Finance in China: A Report from the Field. Modern China, 36(3), pp. 302-328.
Zhu, Yu, Wu, Zhongmin, Peng, Liquan and Sheng, Laiyun (2009). Where did all the remittances go? Understanding the impact of remittances on consumption patterns in rural China. University of Kent Department of Economics. May, KDPE 0907.
Week VIII Inequality, migration, and social change
Démurger, Sylvie and Xu, Hui (2010). Return migrants : The rise of new entrepreneurs in rural China. Universite de Lyon and Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, ECNU Shanghai. March.
Gagnon, Jason, Xenogiani, Theodora and Xing, Chunbing (2009). Are all migrants really worse off in urban labour markets? New empirical evidence from China. OECD Development Centre. June, Working Paper No. 278.
Giles, John, Wang, Dewen and Zhao, Changbao (2010). Can China’s Rural Elderly Count on Support from Adult Children? Implications of Rural-to-Urban Migration. World Bank. December, Policy Research Working Paper 5510.
Hannum, Emily, Behrman, Jere, Wang, Meiyan and Liu, Jihong (2008). Education in the Reform Era. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 7, pp. 215-249.
Li, Hongbin, Yi, Junjian and Zhang, Junsen (2010). Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor. IZA Discussion Paper No. 5149.
May, Shannon (2010). Bridging Divides and Breaking Homes: Young Women’s Lifecycle Labour Mobility as a Family Managerial Strategy. The China Quarterly(December), pp. 899-920.
Wang, Feng and Mason, Andrew (2008). The Demographic Factor in China’s Transition. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 5, pp. 136-166.
Week IX: Environment
Adams, F. Gerard and Shachmurove, Yochanan (2007). Projections of Chinese Energy Demands in 2020. Penn Institute for Economic Research. PIER Working Paper 07-012.
Mu, Ren and Van de Walle, Dominique (2009). Left Behind to Farm? Women’s Labor Re-Allocation in Rural China. World Bank. October, Policy Research Working Paper 5107.
Peng, Xizhe, Pan, Kexi and Yu, Juan (2009). Environmental and Resource Implications of Chinese Growth: Current Trends and Future Prospects. In: Nazrul Islam, ed., Resurgent China: Issues for the Future. London: Palgrave McMillan, Chapter 12, pp. 332-352.
Rawski, Thomas G. (2009). Urban Air Quality in China: Historical and Comparative Perspectives. In: Nazrul Islam, ed., Resurgent China: Issues for the Future. London: Palgrave McMillan, Chapter 13, pp. 353-369.
Roumasset, James, Burnett, Kimberly and Wang, Hua (2008). Environmental Resources and Economic Growth. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 8, pp. 250-285.
Week X: Fiscal structure
Chan, Kam Wing, Henderson, J. Vernon and Tsui, Kai Yuen (2008). Spatial Dimensions of Chinese Economic Development. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 19, pp. 776-828.
Wong, Christine P.W. and Bird, Richard M. (2008). China’s Fiscal System: A Work in Progress. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 12, pp. 429-466.
Week XI: International Trade
Fehr, Hans, Jokish, Sabine and Kotlikoff, Laurence (2006). Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? – Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China. Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA Annual Conference Volume and NBER Working Paper No. 11668.
Ito, Keiko and Paprzycki, Ralph (2010). Investment, Production, and Trade Networks as Drivers of East Asian Integration. New York: Columbia University. Center on Japanese Economy and Business Working Paper No. 288.
Kalra, Sanjay (2010). ASEAN: A Chronicle of Shifting Trade Exposure and Regional Integration. IMF. May, WP/10/119.
Vogel, Lukas (2010). China’s External Surplus: Simulations with a Global Macroeconomic Model. Brussels: European Commission. October, Deutsches Bundesbank Workshop on “Money, Finance and Banking in East Asia”.
Xing, Yuqing and Detert, Neal (2010). How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People’s Republic of China. Manila: Asian Development Bank. December, ADBI Working Paper Series No. 257.
Week XII: Summary: Towards China 2020
IMF (2010). People’s Republic of China: 2010 Article IV Consultation – Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion. Washington, D.C.: IMF. July, IMF Country Report No. 10/238.
IMF (July 2011). People’s Republic of China: 2011 Article IV Consultation. Staff Report, Supplement, Informational Annex, Public Information Notice, and Statement by the Executive Director. IMF Country Report No. 11/192.
IMF (July 2011). People’s Republic of China. Spillover Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation and Selected Issues. IMF Country Report No. 11/193.
Perkins, Dwight H. and Rawski, Thomas G. (2008). Forecasting China’s Economic Growth to 2025. In: Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 20, pp. 829-886.
Wang, Qing, Ho, Ernest and Zhang, Steven (2010). Chinese Economy Through 2020: How Growth Will Decelerate (Part 1), Labor Supply to Remain Abundant (Part 2), A Golden Age for Consumption (Part 3). Hong Kong and Shanghai: Morgan Stanley. September 21, October 12 and November 2, Global Economic Forum.
World Bank (1997). China 2020: Development Challenges in the New Century. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. Leyburn HC427.92 .C4623 1997.
This is a fascinating analysis done 15 years ago. Its findings remain pertinent – if not prescient – and overall it is a powerful testimony to the analytic power of economics when backed by the wisdom garnered by senior World Bank staff through years of work with developing countries.