The World Bank issued an economic update on December 19th that highlighted the growth of the western Pacific as a whole — though China is a major part of that. Below I post select points (out of a much longer list). A question we need to keep in mind this term is China’s location in the global economy. At one time the world was unipolar: all the big bilateral ties were with the US economy. But now triangular trade within Asia is important, including links among Korea, Japan and China; Korea, Japan and Southeast Asia, and Southeast Asia and China. My comments are in italics.
- Economies of developing East Asia and Pacific remained resilient despite the lackluster performance of the global economy.
- The region will grow at 7.5 percent in 2012, lower than the 8.3 percent registered in 2011, but the region is set to recover to 7.9 percent in 2013.
- The region is expected to contribute almost 40 percent of global growth in 2012, and a similar share in 2013.
- China’s economic slowdown affected the region’s economic performance.
- China’s growth is projected to reach 7.9 percent this year [CY2012], with weak exports and the government’s efforts to cool down the overheating housing sector
- In 2013, China’s economy is expected to grow at 8.4 percent [the new leadership needs to cement its position by “bringing home the bacon”], fueled by fiscal stimulus and the faster implementation of large investment projects.
- Developing East Asia, excluding China, is doing better than last year, and is projected to grow 5.6 percent in 2012, higher than the 4.4 percent recorded in 2011.
- For China, we see some slowdown in 2014. China’s potential growth is projected to gradually slow, as investment levels off and productivity increase and labor force growth starts to slow. Our 2014 projection of 8 percent growth reflects that.