In Japan, motor vehicles were few and far between in the 1950s, and in 1956 half of all vehicles produced were still 3-wheelers. Car production surpassed that of trucks only in 1969, and it was only from the mid-1970s that there were more cars than trucks on the road. Even in 1985 there were only… Continue reading Chinese Industrial Policy: an automotive example
This isn’t about China, but it is a particularly clear example of results that rendered nonsense by the failure to distinguish correlation from causation. In this case, it’s a likely outside factor that affects both the “independent” variables (the right-hand side) and the “dependent” variable (the left-hand side of y = a + ßX, where… Continue reading Endogeneity
Oct 18 on Bloomberg, China’s Belt and Road Ambitions: China Is Forced to Reconsider Its Route Into Eastern Europe; 16+1 members disappointed as projects fail to materialize China’s historical geopolitics kept it focused on Central Asia. Yes, in the late Ming Dynasty (16 century) Japanese pirates repeatedly plundered coastal areas. Then there were the British… Continue reading BRI: 一带一路
We analyzed key motives for purchasing foreign exchange. These are: speculation imports portfolio considerations (purchasing US$ assets) direct foreign investment (developing oilfields and building factories and purchasing companies to operate them, eg, not “portfolio”) earn returns (eg, interest) We focused on the latter as an empirically relevant factor in currency movements (take Econ 271 for… Continue reading Foreign Exchange
A popular meme inside the Beltway is that China is stealing us blind. In the background is the assumption that domestic technological capabilities are minimal, and that anything and everything incorporating technology or design must be stolen or counterfeit. In the automotive industry, this turns into the claim that companies are being “forced” to hand… Continue reading Cell Phones, Value Chains and Technology
It’s an exciting time to study the world’s largest economy, with 1.4 billion people and a middle/upper class almost double the size of those of the US or Europe. If you’re a global company such as GM or VW, there’s a good chance you make more money in China than anywhere else in the world.… Continue reading China!
Today’s powerpoint Chinas Future. I left in the agriculture elasticities slide and other details that we covered earlier in the term. I added details to the open economy savings-investment balance (S-I) + (T-G) = (X-M) to the end.
This is the Urban China book in the link on the right – at 550 pages it was too much to assign in class, this chapter alone is 100 pages. Most of the “green” part is on air pollution, including health aspects, but there are also sections on waste disposal and potable water. The second… Continue reading Environmental Issues: Sources
Download Murphree & Breznitz
You – like this post author – are “…almost incapable of reading anything that [you’ve] written before. It’s just too boring when you already know what the next sentence is going to say; at best [you] can skim. So it’s very hard for [YOU] to catch mistakes…” WHERE – whoops, there goes a typo –… Continue reading Proofreading your own stuff
I use Del.icio.us to create a list of news items relevant for the course. You can find those on the right – I use a pre-made “widget” that includes an ad. (A second version should be at the bottom of the right; scroll down…) If any of you have programming skills I’m sure you can… Continue reading News Links
An early topic this term will be foreign exchange rates. After all, we need/want to be able to compare China to other countries, and to understand trade and international finance issues. So here’s a bit of perspective. We also need to develop the concept of “PPP” (purchasing power parity). For more on this topic, see… Continue reading Exchange rates: Updated
Peter Hessler, 2010. Country Driving. NY: HarperCollins. ISBN 978-0-06-180409-0 but also in other formats.
This course is targeted at students who have had Economics 101 and 102 (the “Principles” sequence) though in the past motivated students with an interest in China but little economics background have done well. China’s growth is slowing from real GDP growth of a heady 10+% pa to (officially) between 6%-7%. Why, and so what?… Continue reading Winter 2017: MWF 2:30-3:25 pm